# Research articles for the 2019-05-11

Optimal Stopping Time, Consumption, Labour, and Portfolio Decision for a Pension Scheme

SSRN

In this work we solve in a closed form the problem of an agent who wants to optimise the inter-temporal utility of both his consumption and leisure by choosing: (i) the optimal inter-temporal consumption, (ii) the optimal inter-temporal labour supply, (iii) the optimal share of wealth to invest in a risky asset, and (iv) the optimal retirement age. The wage of the agent is assumed to be stochastic and correlated with the risky asset on the financial market. The problem is split into two sub-problems: the optimal consumption, labour, and portfolio problem is solved first, and then the optimal stopping time is approached. The martingale method is used for the first problem, and it allows to solve it for any value of the stopping time which is just considered as a stochastic variable. The problem of the agent is solved by assuming that after retirement he received a utility that is proportional to the remaining human capital. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented for showing the behaviour over time of the optimal solution.

SSRN

In this work we solve in a closed form the problem of an agent who wants to optimise the inter-temporal utility of both his consumption and leisure by choosing: (i) the optimal inter-temporal consumption, (ii) the optimal inter-temporal labour supply, (iii) the optimal share of wealth to invest in a risky asset, and (iv) the optimal retirement age. The wage of the agent is assumed to be stochastic and correlated with the risky asset on the financial market. The problem is split into two sub-problems: the optimal consumption, labour, and portfolio problem is solved first, and then the optimal stopping time is approached. The martingale method is used for the first problem, and it allows to solve it for any value of the stopping time which is just considered as a stochastic variable. The problem of the agent is solved by assuming that after retirement he received a utility that is proportional to the remaining human capital. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented for showing the behaviour over time of the optimal solution.

The Predictive Power of the Dividend Risk Premium

SSRN

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about (i) the expected dividend growth rate and (ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence of dividend growth and stock market return predictability both in- and out-of-sample. Economically, a market timing investor who accounts for the time varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02 % per year.

SSRN

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about (i) the expected dividend growth rate and (ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence of dividend growth and stock market return predictability both in- and out-of-sample. Economically, a market timing investor who accounts for the time varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02 % per year.