We introduce a random forest approach to enable spreads' prediction in the primary catastrophe bond market. We investigate whether all information provided to investors in the offering circular prior to a new issuance is equally important in predicting its spread. The whole population of non-life catastrophe bonds issued from December 2009 to May 2018 is used. The random forest shows an impressive predictive power on unseen primary catastrophe bond data explaining 93% of the total variability. For comparison, linear regression, our benchmark model, has inferior predictive performance explaining only 47% of the total variability. All details provided in the offering circular are predictive of spread but in a varying degree. The stability of the results is studied. The usage of random forest can speed up investment decisions in the catastrophe bond industry.

We study combinations of risk measures under no restrictive assumption on the set of alternatives. The main result is the representation for resulting risk measures from the properties of both alternative functionals and combination functions. To that, we develop a representation for arbitrary mixture of convex risk measures. In this case, we obtain a penalty that recall the notion of inf-convolution under theoretical measure integration. As an application, we address the context of probability-based risk measurements for functionals on the set of distribution functions. We develop results related to this specific context. We also explore features of individual interest generated by our framework, such as the preservation of continuity properties, the representation of worst-case risk measures, stochastic dominance and elicitability.

As the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) has implemented a new regulation on short-sellings, short-sellers are required to repurchase stocks once the clearing risk rises to a certain level. Avellaneda and Lipkin proposed a fully coupled SDE system to describe the mechanism which is referred as Hard-To-Borrow(HTB) models. Guiyuan Ma obtained the PDE system for both American and European options. There is a technical error in Guiyuan Ma where two correlated Brownian motion should be converted before change of measure. In this paper, I will provide supplement conditions.

In recent years, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) has become an increasingly important issue in the field of machine learning for the development of more accurate forecasting models. In this study, we explore the potential of HPO in modeling stock returns using a deep neural network (DNN). The potential of this approach was evaluated using technical indicators and fundamentals examined based on the effect the regularization of dropouts and batch normalization for all input data. We found that the model using technical indicators and dropout regularization significantly outperforms three other models, showing a positive predictability of 0.53% in-sample and 1.11% out-of-sample, thereby indicating the possibility of beating the historical average. We also demonstrate the stability of the model in terms of the changes in its feature importance over time.

This paper assesses the role of financial performance in explaining firms' investment dynamics in the wine industry from the three European Union (EU) largest producers. The wine sector deserves special attention to investigate firms' investment behavior given the high competition imposed by the latecomers. More precisely, we investigate how the capitalization, liquidity and profitability influence the investment dynamics using firm-level data from the wine industry from France (331 firms), Italy (335) firms and Spain (442) firms. We use data from 2007 to 2014, drawing a comparison between these countries, and relying on difference-and system-GMM estimators. Specifically, the impact of profitability is positive and significant, while the capitalization has a significant and negative impact on the investment dynamics only in France and Spain. The influence of the liquidity ratio is negative and significant only in the case of Spain. Therefore, we notice different investment strategies for wine companies located in the largest producer countries. It appears that these findings are in general robust to different specifications of liquidity and profitability ratios, and to the different estimators we use.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze and renovate few main-stream models on inflation derivatives. In the first chapter of the thesis, concepts of financial instruments and fundamental terms are introduced, such as coupon bond, inflation-indexed bond, swap.

In the second chapter of the thesis, classic models along the history of developing quantified interest rate models are introduced and analyzed. Moreover, the classification of interest rate models is introduced to help audiences understand the intrinsic ideology behind each type of models.

In the third chapter of the thesis, the related mathematical knowledge is introduced. This part has the contribution on understanding the terms and relation among terms in each model introduced previously.

In the fourth part of the thesis, the renovation of HJM frame work is introduced and analysis has been initiated.

Smart cities that make broad use of digital technologies have been touted as possible solutions for the population pressures faced by many cities in developing countries and may help meet the rising demand for services and infrastructure. Nevertheless, the high financial cost involved in infrastructure maintenance, the substantial size of the informal economies, and various governance challenges are curtailing government idealism regarding smart cities. This review examines the state of smart city development in developing countries, which includes understanding the conceptualisations, motivations, and unique drivers behind (and barriers to) smarty city development. A total of 56 studies were identified from a systematic literature review from an initial pool of 3928 social sciences literature identified from two academic databases. Data were analysed using thematic synthesis and thematic analysis. The review found that technology-enabled smart cities in developing countries can only be realised when concurrent socioeconomic, human, legal, and regulatory reforms are instituted. Governments need to step up their efforts to fulfil the basic infrastructure needs of citizens, raise more revenue, construct clear regulatory frameworks to mitigate the technological risks involved, develop human capital, ensure digital inclusivity, and promote environmental sustainability. A supportive ecosystem that encourages citizen participation, nurtures start-ups, and promotes public-private partnerships needs to be created to realise their smart city vision.

The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.

Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or $n=\infty$, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.

A few examples:

+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.

+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.

+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.

+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.

+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.

+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions

+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.

This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Optimized certainty equivalents (OCEs) is a family of risk measures widely used by both practitioners and academics. This is mostly due to its tractability and the fact that it encompasses important examples, including entropic risk measures and average value at risk.

In this work we consider stochastic optimal control problems where the objective criterion is given by an OCE risk measure, or put in other words, a risk minimization problem for controlled diffusions. A major difficulty arises since OCEs are often time inconsistent. Nevertheless, via an enlargement of state space we achieve a substitute of sorts for time consistency in fair generality. This allows us to derive a dynamic programming principle and thus recover central results of (risk-neutral) stochastic control theory. In particular, we show that the value of our risk minimization problem can be characterized via the viscosity solution of a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman--Issacs equation. We further establish the uniqueness of the latter under suitable technical conditions.

Monte Carlo methods are critical to many routines in quantitative finance such as derivatives pricing, hedging and risk metrics. Unfortunately, Monte Carlo methods are very computationally expensive when it comes to running simulations in high-dimensional state spaces where they are still a method of choice in the financial industry. Recently, Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) have provided considerable speedups and decreased the cost of running Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in Deep Learning. After highlighting computational similarities between training neural networks with SGD and simulating stochastic processes, we ask in the present paper whether TPUs are accurate, fast and simple enough to use for financial Monte Carlo. Through a theoretical reminder of the key properties of such methods and thorough empirical experiments we examine the fitness of TPUs for option pricing, hedging and risk metrics computation. In particular we demonstrate that, in spite of the use of mixed precision, TPUs still provide accurate estimators which are fast to compute when compared to GPUs. We also show that the Tensorflow programming model for TPUs is elegant, expressive and simplifies automated differentiation.