In this article, we tackle the problem of a market maker in charge of a book of options on a single liquid underlying asset. By using an approximation of the portfolio in terms of its vega, we show that the seemingly high-dimensional stochastic optimal control problem of an option market maker is in fact tractable. More precisely, when volatility is modeled using a classical stochastic volatility model -- e.g. the Heston model -- the problem faced by an option market maker is characterized by a low-dimensional functional equation that can be solved numerically using a Euler scheme along with interpolation techniques, even for large portfolios. In order to illustrate our findings, numerical examples are provided.

We study financial networks with debt contracts and credit default swaps between specific pairs of banks. Given such a financial system, we want to decide which of the banks are in default, and how much of their liabilities these defaulting banks can pay. There can easily be multiple different solutions to this problem, leading to a situation of default ambiguity and a range of possible solutions to implement for a financial authority.

In this paper, we study the general properties of the solution space of such financial systems, and analyze a wide range of reasonable objective functions for selecting from the set of solutions. Examples of such objective functions include minimizing the number of defaulting banks, minimizing the amount of unpaid debt, maximizing the number of satisfied banks, maximizing the equity of a specific bank, finding the most balanced distribution of equity, and many others. We show that for all of these objective functions, it is not only NP-hard to find the optimal solution, but it is also NP-hard to approximate this optimum: for each objective function, we show an inapproximability either to an $n^{1/2-\epsilon}$ or to an $n^{1/4-\epsilon}$ factor for any $\epsilon>0$, with $n$ denoting the number of banks in the system. Thus even if an authority has clear criteria to select a solution in case of default ambiguity, it is computationally intractable to find a solution that is reasonably good in terms of this criteria. We also show that our hardness results hold in a wide range of different model variants.

We designed a machine learning algorithm that identifies patterns between ESG profiles and financial performances for companies in a large investment universe. The algorithm consists of regularly updated sets of rules that map regions into the high-dimensional space of ESG features to excess return predictions. The final aggregated predictions are transformed into scores which allow us to design simple strategies that screen the investment universe for stocks with positive scores. By linking the ESG features with financial performances in a non-linear way, our strategy based upon our machine learning algorithm turns out to be an efficient stock picking tool, which outperforms classic strategies that screen stocks according to their ESG ratings, as the popular best-in-class approach. Our paper brings new ideas in the growing field of financial literature that investigates the links between ESG behavior and the economy. We show indeed that there is clearly some form of alpha in the ESG profile of a company, but that this alpha can be accessed only with powerful, non-linear techniques such as machine learning.

We solve a family of fractional Riccati differential equations with constant (possibly complex) coefficients. These equations arise, e.g., in fractional Heston stochastic volatility models, that have received great attention in the recent financial literature thanks to their ability to reproduce a rough volatility behavior. We first consider the case of a zero initial value corresponding to the characteristic function of the log-price. Then we investigate the case of a general starting value associated to a transform also involving the volatility process. The solution to the fractional Riccati equation takes the form of power series, whose convergence domain is typically finite. This naturally suggests a hybrid numerical algorithm to explicitly obtain the solution also beyond the convergence domain of the power series representation. Our numerical tests show that the hybrid algorithm turns out to be extremely fast and stable. When applied to option pricing, our method largely outperforms the only available alternative in the literature, based on the Adams method.

Individuals' output often depends not just on their ability and actions, but also on external factors or fundamentals, whose effect they cannot separately identify. At the same time, many individuals have incorrect beliefs about their own ability. Heidhues et al. (2018) characterise overconfident and underconfident individuals' equilibrium beliefs and learning process in these situations. They argue overconfident individuals will act sub-optimally because of how they learn. We carry out the first experimental test their theory. Subjects take incorrectly marked tests, and we measure how they learn about the marker's accuracy over time. We use machine learning to identify heterogeneous effects. Overconfident subjects have lower beliefs about the fundamental, as Heidhues et al. predict, and thus would make sub-optimal decisions. But we find no evidence it is because of how they learn.

This paper studies models in which hypothesis tests have trivial power, that is, power smaller than size. This testing impossibility, or impossibility type A, arises when any alternative is not distinguishable from the null. We also study settings in which it is impossible to have almost surely bounded confidence sets for a parameter of interest. This second type of impossibility (type B) occurs under a condition weaker than the condition for type A impossibility: the parameter of interest must be nearly unidentified. Our theoretical framework connects many existing publications on impossible inference that rely on different notions of topologies to show models are not distinguishable or nearly unidentified. We also derive both types of impossibility using the weak topology induced by convergence in distribution. Impossibility in the weak topology is often easier to prove, it is applicable for many widely-used tests, and it is useful for robust hypothesis testing. We conclude by demonstrating impossible inference in multiple economic applications of models with discontinuity and time-series models.

The start up costs in many kinds of generators lead to complex cost structures, which in turn yield severe market loopholes in the locational marginal price (LMP) scheme. Convex hull pricing (a.k.a. extended LMP) is proposed to improve the market efficiency by providing the minimal uplift payment to the generators. In this letter, we consider a stylized model where all generators share the same generation capacity. We analyze the generators' possible strategic behaviors in such a setting, and then propose an index for market power quantification in the convex hull pricing schemes.

We formulate a composite problem involving the decision making of the optimal entry time and dynamic consumption afterwards: in stage-1, the investor has access to full market information subjecting to some information costs and needs to choose an optimal stopping time to initiate stage-2; in stage-2 starting from the chosen stopping time, the investor terminates the costly full information acquisition and starts dynamic investment and consumption under partial observations of free public stock prices. The habit formation preference is employed, in which the past consumption affects the investor's current decisions. The value function of the composite problem is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of some variational inequalities.

Modern quantitative risk management relies on an adequate modeling of the tail dependence and a possibly accurate quantification of risk measures, like Value at Risk (VaR), at high confidence levels like 1 in 100 or even 1 in 2000. Quantum computing makes such a quantification quadratically more efficient than the Monte Carlo method; see (Woerner and Egger, 2018) and, for a broader perspective, (Or\'us et al., 2018). An important element of the risk analysis toolbox is copula, see (Jouanin et al., 2004) regarding financial applications. However, to the best knowledge of the author, no quantum computing implementation for sampling from a risk modeling-relevant copula in explicit form has been published so far. Our focus here is implementation of simple yet powerful copula models, capable of a satisfactory capturing the joint tail behaviour of the modelled risk factors. This paper deals with a few simple copula families, including Multivariate B11 (MB11) copula family, presented in (Milek, 2014). We will show that this copula family is suitable for the risk aggregation as it is exceptionally able to reproduce tail dependence structures; see (Embrechts et al., 2016) for a relevant benchmark as well as necessary and sufficient conditions regarding the ultimate feasible bivariate tail dependence structures. It turns out that such a discretized copula can be expressed using simple constructs present in the quantum computing: binary fraction expansion format, comonotone/independent random variables, controlled gates, and convex combinations, and is therefore suitable for a quantum computer implementation. This paper presents design behind the quantum implementation circuits, numerical and symbolic simulation results, and experimental validation on IBM quantum computer. The paper proposes also a generic method for quantum implementation of any discretized copula.

In recent decades, global oil palm production has shown an abrupt increase, with almost 90% produced in Southeast Asia alone. Monitoring oil palm is largely based on national surveys and inventories or one-off mapping studies. However, they do not provide detailed spatial extent or timely updates and trends in oil palm expansion or age. Palm oil yields vary significantly with plantation age, which is critical for landscape-level planning. Here we show the extent and age of oil palm plantations for the year 2017 across Southeast Asia using remote sensing. Satellites reveal a total of 11.66 (+/- 2.10) million hectares (Mha) of plantations with more than 45% located in Sumatra. Plantation age varies from ~7 years in Kalimantan to ~13 in Insular Malaysia. More than half the plantations on Kalimantan are young (<7 years) and not yet in full production compared to Insular Malaysia where 45% of plantations are older than 15 years, with declining yields. For the first time, these results provide a consistent, independent, and transparent record of oil palm plantation extent and age structure, which are complementary to national statistics.

In electricity markets futures deliver the underlying over a period and thus function as a swap contract. In this paper we introduce a market price of risk for delivery periods of electricity swaps. In particular, we suggest a weighted geometric average of an artificial geometric electricity futures price over the corresponding delivery period. This leads to a geometric electricity swap price dynamics without any approximation requirements. Our framework allows to include typical features as the Samuelson effect, seasonalities as well as a stochastic volatility in the absence of arbitrage. We show that our suggested model is suitable for pricing options on electricity swaps using the Heston method. Especially, we illustrate the related pricing procedure for electricity swaps and options in the setting of Arismendi et al. (2016), Schneider and Tavin (2018) and Fanelli and Schmeck (2019).