Research articles for the 2020-08-11

Achieving Nepal’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by Effective Compliance of Corporate Governance
B.K., Anish
Background: it has been almost two that sustainable development has been a global agenda in a form or other. Nepal’s efforts to successful execution of millennium development goals (MDGs) also opened new paradigms for the enactment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) planned for 2016-2030. The MDGs based on millennium declaration in the year 2000 by the United Nations (UN) has set foundation for the SDGs 2016-2030.Objectives: The primary purpose of this discourse was to establish the relationship between effective compliance of corporate governance and Nepal’s potential for the attainment of SDGs 2016-2030.Methods: Fully based on desk review performed in a qualitative setting of inquiry.Results: There is positive relationship between effective compliance of corporate governance (CG) and potential for the attainment of SDGs 2016-2030 in changing context of Nepal. Further, this paper highlights the general national scenarios, issues, challenges and ways forward in governing sustainable corporate development in Nepal to contribute the nation in its mission to attainment of sustainable development goals 2016-2030.Conclusions: Effective compliance of corporate governance serves as an instrumental pre-requisite for enhancing national potential to achieve Ne­pal’s national shared goals on SDG.Implications: Nepal needs immediate goals diffusion with appropriate resources allocation for each participant of sustainable development.

Aggression in the workplace makes social distance difficult
Keisuke Kokubun

The spread of new coronavirus (COVID-19) infections continues to increase. The practice of social distance attracts attention as a measure to prevent the spread of infection, but it is difficult for some occupations. Therefore, in previous studies, the scale of factors that determine social distance has been developed. However, it was not clear how to select the items among them, and it seemed to be somewhat arbitrary. In response to this trend, this paper extracted eight scales by performing exploratory factor analysis based on certain rules while eliminating arbitrariness as much as possible. They were Adverse Conditions, Leadership, Information Processing, Response to Aggression, Mechanical Movement, Autonomy, Communication with the Outside, and Horizontal Teamwork. Of these, Adverse Conditions, Response to Aggression, and Horizontal Teamwork had a positive correlation with Physical Proximity, and Information Processing, Mechanical Movement, Autonomy, and Communication with the Outside had a negative correlation with Physical Proximity. Furthermore, as a result of multiple regression analysis, it was shown that Response to Aggression, not the mere teamwork assumed in previous studies, had the greatest influence on Physical Proximity.

Assessment of Measures for Tax Regulation of Transfer Pricing from the Standpoint of National Welfare (Оценка мер по налоговому регулированию трансфертного ценообразования с точки зрения национального благосостояния)
Polezharova , Liudmila
English Abstract: This article is devoted to development of mathematical models for resolving an actual scientific challenge in the field of corporate finance. This involves substantiating taxation policies for the counter-acting tax planning of multinational companies (MNC), and then devising and articulating the appropriate international taxation scheme, as evaluated from the position of national welfare policy. Based on an analysis of existing models of international taxation, and on the peculiarities of the actual mechanism of capital movement tax regulation, new models with equilibrium postulated have been developed. The primary mechanisms of this research involve the following considerations: (1) examination of an approach targeted at the determination of the final outcomes of international taxation from the perspective of national economies; (2) measures of tax planning on the part of MNCs, and corresponding counter-acting measures to the tax planning applied by governments, are taken as a complex. Our results indicate that because a government uses rules of controlled transactions, in order to counter-act MNCs’ tax planning, for the government the final outcome from an application of these rules may be negative. This is due to a possibility of MNCs’ development in convenient and offshore jurisdictions. This finding is illustrated by means of an approbation of models with a case study involving a three-tier structure. Further to this point, instead of additional revenues, a government is at a risk of a shrinking tax base and a reduction in budget revenues; and moreover from the perspective of national welfare, the additional loss of revenues and capital of MNCs. Therefore there is a significant importance in forming rules for MNC taxation policies which would focus not on taxes as such, but would focus on trying to keep capital within the territory and/or would facilitate the return of earlier divested income. This could be attempted, for example, by using the secondary adjustment rule in conjunction with a minimum tax on return. The novelty of this research resides in the specificity of our investigation and the applicability of our conclusions to the practical challenges of international taxation and national revenue policies. The peculiarities of this economic moment and the crucial challenges for national governments in dealing with MNCs and the digital economy underline the significance of this study. Our results expand and develop the existing literature in this ever-crucial area be of immediate use to policymakers, academics and administrators involved in national and international taxation, finance, economics, and analysis.Russian Abstract: Ð"анная статья посвящена разработке математических моделей для решения актуальной научной задачи в области корпоративных финансов. Это включает обоснование налоговой политики для противодействующего налогового планирования многонациональных компаний (MNC), а затем разработку и формулирование соответствующей международной схемы налогообложения, исходя из позиции национальной политики благосостояния. На основе анализа существующих моделей международного налогообложения и особенностей действующего механизма налогового регулирования движения капитала были разработаны новые модели с постулированным равновесием. Основные механизмы этого исследования включают следующие соображения: (1) изучение подхода, нацеленного на определение конечных результатов международного налогообложения с точки зрения национальной экономики; (2) меры налогового планирования со стороны ТНК и соответствующие контрмеры в отношении налогового планирования, применяемого правительствами, рассматриваются как комплекс. Наши результаты показывают, что, поскольку правительство использует правила контролируемых транзакций, для противодействия налоговому планированию ТНК для правительства окончательный результат от применения этих правил может быть отрицательным. Это связано с возможностью развития ТНК в удобных и оффшорных юрисдикциях. Этот вывод иллюстрируется с помощью апробации моделей с тематическим исследованием, включающим трехуровневую структуру. Ð' дополнение к этому, вместо дополнительных доходов правительство подвергается риску сокращения налоговой базы и сокращения доходов бюджета; и, кроме того, с точки зрения национального благосостояния, дополнительная потеря доходов и капитала ТНК. Поэтому большое значение имеет формирование правил для налоговой политики ТНК, которые будут сосредоточены не на налогах как таковых, а на попытках удержать капитал на территории и / или будут способствовать возврату ранее аннулированного дохода. Это можно сделать, например, с помощью правила вторичной корректировки в сочетании с минимальным налогом на прибыль. Новизна этого исследования заключается в специфике нашего исследования и применимости наших выводов к практическим вызовам политики международного налогообложения и национального дохода. Особенности этого экономического момента и важнейшие задачи, стоящие перед национальными правительствами при работе с ТНК и цифровой экономикой, подчеркивают важность этого исследования. Наши результаты расширяют и развивают существующую литературу в этой крайне важной области, которая будет незамедлительно использоваться для политиков, ученых и администраторов, занимающихся вопросами налогообложения, финансов, экономики и анализа на национальном и международном уровнях.

Assessment of National Policy to Promote Corporate Governance in Nepal
Tandukar, Heena
Background: Corporate governance, or good governance may have a direct impact not only on economic health of an organization, but also the overall status of national governance or systems administration. By now, Nepal has succeeded to attain political stability and attainment of policy stability is in its making. It is right time for all type of organizations to institute favorable traditions, customs, policies, rules and regulations with increased level of accountability to help the nation with right policy direction. Therefore, reviewing the Nepalese corporate governance scenario by assessing governing policies, prevailing issues, challenges and practices deem necessary.Objectives: The main purpose of this paper was to establish an assessment of national policy effectiveness on corporate governance, specifically in the banking sector.Methods: Fully based on desk review performed in a qualitative setting of inquiry.Results: There is closer linkage between legal and regulatory provisions and effectiveness of corporate governance in the Nepalese banking sector.Conclusions: For an emerging economies, improving the level of corporate governance can serve a number of important public policy objectives such as reducing market vulnerability to financial crises, controlling transaction costs and cost of capital, and resulting with investor confidence and capital market development situation.Implications: Nepal needs timely review and updates in not only policies governing bank and financial institutions, but also the entire company’s act of the country to make all type of organizations accountable and transparent in their operations to win the investor confidence and market trust.

Asset Prices and Capital Share Risks: Theory and Evidence
Byrne, Joseph,Ibrahim, Boulis Maher,Zong, Xiaoyu
An asset pricing model using long-run capital share growth risk has recently been found to successfully explain U.S. stock returns. Our paper adopts a recursive preference utility framework to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model with capital share risks.While modeling capital share risks, we account for the elevated consumption volatility of high income stockholders. Capital risks have strong volatility effects in our recursive asset pricing model. Empirical evidence is presented in which capital share growth is also a source of risk for stock return volatility. We uncover contrasting unconditional and conditional asset pricing evidence for capital share risks.

Combining Outcome-Based and Preference-Based Matching: A Constrained Priority Mechanism
Avidit Acharya,Kirk Bansak,Jens Hainmueller

We introduce a constrained priority mechanism that combines outcome-based matching from machine-learning with preference-based allocation schemes common in market design. Using real-world data, we illustrate how our mechanism could be applied to the assignment of refugee families to host country locations, and kindergarteners to schools. Our mechanism allows a planner to first specify a threshold $\bar g$ for the minimum acceptable average outcome score that should be achieved by the assignment. In the refugee matching context, this score corresponds to the predicted probability of employment, while in the student assignment context it corresponds to standardized test scores. The mechanism is a priority mechanism that considers both outcomes and preferences by assigning agents (refugee families, students) based on their preferences, but subject to meeting the planner's specified threshold. The mechanism is both strategy-proof and constrained efficient in that it always generates a matching that is not Pareto dominated by any other matching that respects the planner's threshold.

Communication in Banking Sector: A Systematic Review
Shrestha, Sulochana
Background: Effective banking communication strengthens the relationship between customer, suppliers, stakeholders, manager, client, employees and board of directors. Banker’s experience on banking communication enhances banking system, employee’s behavior and core banking services facilities management. Banking communication improves organizational effectiveness through training, knowledge management, risk management, internal control system and data security management. In modern era, communication channel is transformed into electronic channel promoting e-banking which includes internet banking, mobile banking and e-payment system. Moreover, clerical work shifted into electronic form, which cut costs and satisfy customer.Objectives: This paper explores how banker’s experience effects on banking communication in commercial banks, which enhances their understanding level and determines effective communication in workplace.Methods: Extensive desk reviews followed by related literature werecarried out to gain better insight regarding the field of study.Findings: With the passage of time, computers and technologies have changed the traditional method of communication system. Banks are now using windows, world processing system, excel, computer operating system, DOS, database management system, data planning and database design, data security, internet, intranet, extranet service and email system which increase working performance.Conclusions: Bank managers need to understand importance of communication skills in order to increase effectiveness of internal communication between manager and employees.Implications: Commercial banks of Nepal requireto update in their communication practices and strategies in order to build proper channel which would help in communication between employees and management.

Comprehensive Reward System, Employee Motivation and Turnover Intention: Evidence from Nepali Banking Industry
Gautam, Prakash Kumar
Background: Employee motivation and employee turnover are central issues in the modern organizations as human capital is the most important intangible asset for organizational productivity. Attitude, skills and knowledge of employees create the competitive advantage of the organization. It is the growing challenge for retaining competent and professional employees in the organization within the increasing global opportunities. Employee motivation, satisfaction, job burnout, turnover are being common challenges to the management. To cope with such challenges, organizations should have strategic focus on comprehensive reward system.Objectives: This study aims at exploring the factors of comprehensive reward system. More specifically, relationships between the components of comprehensive reward system and employee motivation are examined. Finally, the impact of employee motivation derived from reward system was tested with employee turnover intention.Methods: This study was conducted with descriptive-correlational research design that follows quantitative approach. Primary data for each variable was collected from 200 employees holding different positions in different banks. A 5-Point Likert Scale was used to collect major responses on the variables. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and regression analysis were used to test the hypothesis. Inferences were made on five per cent and one per cent level of significance.Result: Results of the study revealed that compensation, benefits, work-life balance, performance recognition and empowerment and career opportunity were the major factors as the components of comprehensive reward system. It was found that these factors had significant positive relationship with employee motivation. Results also revealed the negative significant relationship between employee motivation and their turnover intention.Conclusion: Employees of Nepali banking industry strongly believe in comprehensive reward system ranging from economic benefits to the personal growth. It is also concluded, with supporting the theory that employee motivation helps to solve the employee turnover intention.Implications: To solve the high corporate movement of employees in Nepali banks, this study provides a key insight for focusing on comprehensive reward system.

Corporate Social Responsibility and Bond Volatility
Chamberlain, Trevor W.,Zhang, Zehua,Zhao, Ran,Zhu, Lu
This paper examines the effects of corporate social performance and bond market reactions. We find a strong positive relationship between social performance and bond volatility after controlling for bond characteristics and firm fundamentals. The empirical results are consistent for social performance strengths and concerns and are robust to alternative measures, alternative sample periods and endogeneity controls. The main mechanism is through the short-term uncertainty that social activities bring to the firm. We find that the effect is more pronounced for firms with higher information asymmetry and higher default risk and for bonds with higher rollover risk and less investor attention.

Counting the costs of COVID-19: a critique of Miles et al
Adrian Kent

Miles et al. [1] recently produced an analysis of the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19, focussing on the case of the U.K. They argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives saved, if the latter are evaluated using the NICE threshold of {\pounds}30000 for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Looking forwards, they argue that the costs of a lockdown for 13 weeks from mid-June would be vastly greater than the benefits under any plausible QALY costing, even in a scenario in which easing lockdown led to a second infection wave that caused more than 7000 deaths a week by mid-September. I note here two key problems that certainly significantly affect their estimates and cast doubt on their conclusions. Firstly, they cut off their calculations arbitrarily after 13 weeks, without costing the epidemic state at the end of the period. That is, they assume that we should be indifferent between mid-September states of 13 deaths a week and 7500 deaths a week, and corresponding infection rates. This seems indefensible unless one assumes that (a) there will be no future vaccine and no future improvements in treatment or in non-medical interventions, (b) that COVID-19 will inevitably continue to propagate until herd immunity is reached. Even under these assumptions it is very questionable. Secondly, they ignore the costs of serious illness, possible long-term lowering of life quality, and possible lowering of life expectancy for COVID-19 survivors. These are uncertain, but clearly not negligible, and plausibly comparable to or larger than the costs in lives lost.

Determinants of Firm Value: A Case Study of Cigarette Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange
Endri, Endri
The purpose of this research is to know whether there is influence of capital structure, profitability, liquidity, and market share to company value. This research was conducted on consumer goods sector of cigarette sub sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange in period 2012-2016. The population of this study are 4 companies. While the sample company taken with purposive sampling method as many as 4 companies with multiple regression analysis method. Multiple regression analysis in this research is used to see the relation between independent variable to dependent variable, either individually or together. The result of analysis shows that as long as the research of capital structure and profitability have positive and significant influence to firm value. While liquidity has a negative and insignificant influence on the value of the company. Other results also show that market share has a positive but insignificant effect on firm value.

Does Debts have any Impact on Governance Bundle and Agency Costs? Over-Governance Hypothesis
Khatib, Saleh
The purpose of this article is to extend the bundles of corporate governance theory and propose the role of corporate debt in determining the governance structure of a company. This research intended to answer some questions have been put forward by scholars to explain the inter-relationship between debt, corporate governance, and agency costs: (i) what exactly is the disciplinary role of debts? (ii) how is governance structure influenced by the debt level? and (iii) are extremely high debt ratios required? Previous works have looked at interrelations between debt, corporate governance, and agency costs in isolation result in inconclusive findings. However, we argue that debt level is a key determinant of the effective governance structure that maintains agency costs at the optimal level. Based on the governance bundle theory, we contribute to the literature by introducing a new model (over-governance model) that suggests financial leverage as a critical contingency linking governance bundle and agency costs. Also, it provides a clear picture on the different type of agency costs. Our paper provides a theoretical framework to guide further studies and provide important implications for the board, corporate management, and regulators.

Empowerment of Diversity in the Nepalese Corporate Sector
Budhathoki, Pragya
Background: There are numerous policy developments undergoing addressing the issue of gender empowerment and social inclusion (GESI) in the corporate sector with an aim to socio-economic mainstreaming of the backward groups but the government programs and the national youth policy may still be lacking the effective implementation for addressing the needs, rights and aspirations of the overall backward people. The present researchers perceived strong need for closer assessment of effectiveness of the policy framework to promote diversity, especially in the corporate sector.For this, the paper, as a whole, discusses within the broader framework of equality and inclusivity, the theme of women in corporate governance with particular reference to Nepalese corporate sector.Objectives: This study was aimed to explore the present scenario of empowerment of diversity in the Nepalese corporate sector.Methods: Fully based on desk research crafted on qualitative paradigms of study. Secondary data were used to collect the information on the issues, trends, matters relating to Gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) and youth empowerment.Results: Effective compliance of corporate governance (CG) has played the significant role in promoting GESI and youth empowerment in the Nepalese corporate sector under changing context of the country and beyond.Conclusions:As a result of multi-dimensional transformation of national structural system, there has been increasing sensitivity and application of GESI sensitive planning and implementation in the Nepalese corporate sector. Such a practice would serve instrumental in empowering women, youth and other marginalized sections of the society.Implications: GESI compliance and youth empowerment in corporate and other service sectors should be made a part of national strategic direction at all levels of institutional governance and disciplining.

Evidence of Predicting Early Signs of Corporate Bankruptcy Using Financial Ratios in the Indian Landscape
Adit Chopra,Abhi Bansal,Aryaman Wadhwa

Corporate bankruptcy impacts the functioning of the economy as it impacts its various stakeholders: Shareholders, financial and operational lenders, and the government. This paper aims to study the impact of a wide array of profitability, leverage and efficiency ratios to predict early signs of bankruptcy in public listed companies in India using a logistic regression considering impacts at two levels: one year and two years before the filing of bankruptcy with the NCLT during the year 2019. The study proves that the accuracies of the classification model are 81.4% and 85.1% respectively for one year and two years before the bankruptcy.

Factors Determine Stock Return of Livestock Feed Companies: Common Effect Model Analysis
Endri, Endri
The main objective of this study was provide evidence that would contribute to efforts to explain that the profitability ratios represented by Return On Asset, liquidity ratio represented by the Current Ratio, solvency ratio represented by Debt to Equity Ratio, the market ratio represented by Price Earning Ratio and special variable of imported of animal feed import can be used to predict stock returns that may occur in the future. Testing is done using the data selected by purposive sampling in LQ 45 group companies in the Indonesia Stock exchange, using data period 2012-2016. Quantitative data analysis used to the the hypothesis that is delivered through the presentation of data. The result of this research have shown that ROA and price of imported animal feed have positive and significant effect. CR, DER, and PER has insignificant effect to stock returns.

Financial Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility and Information Transparency (The Research for the Pharmaceutical Industry) (Финансовые Эффекты Корпоративной Социальной Ответственности и Информационной Прозрачности (Исследование Ð"ля Фармацевтической Отрасли))
Bulgakov, Andrey,Khorin, Alexander ,Krikunov, Arseniy
English Abstract: The article is devoted to research and evaluation of the usefulness of information disclosed in reports of pharmaceutical companies. The main purpose of the study was to assess the transparency of the metric, inter-firm comparability of nonfinancial reporting data, and to identify the usefulness of the disclosed information for international pharmaceutical companies. The methodological basis of the research is the harmonization of the requirements of business practice standards with financial reporting standards. The paper uses the method of proportional-typical selection of stable structured performance indicators of companies. The authors were not limited to information requests from investors in one country, individual companies, or priority areas of interests of interested and involved persons. The study approach implemented for the multilateral consideration of the views of stakeholders. The research database was compiled by reports of five companies, such as Johnson & Johnson, Novartis AG, Merck KGaA, Sanofi, and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. from the Global Reporting Initiative Database and financial reports of 20 pharmaceutical companies of the Access to Medicine Index System in 2014 and 2016. The result of the study is that the total position of 5 companies moved up from the 8th to the 6th rank. The result of the ratio of growth rates of their total revenue, capitalization and long-term capital is positive when compared with the growth rate of the quality of their disclosure of non-financial indicators. Such relationship is the strongest in attracting long-term capital, followed by growth in capitalization and it is the smallest in growth in revenue. The format of the minimum required set of harmonized indicators helps to increase the confidence of stakeholders in the financial and non-financial information of socially responsible companies. The novelty of the results obtained consists in using a metric expression of the quality of reporting indicators to assess their usefulness in the business practice of companies with a production profile. The results obtained in the course of the study allow us to make a generalized conclusion that useful information generated on the basis of harmonization of structured data from financial and non-financial statements contributes to increasing the level of business activity and its comprehensive performance of all parties involved in the company’s affairs.Russian Abstract: Статья посвящена исследованию и оценке полезности информации, раскрываемой в отчетах фармацевтических компаний. Основная цель исследования состояла в том, чтобы оценить прозрачность показателя, межфирменную сопоставимость данных нефинансовой отчетности и определить полезность раскрытой информации для международных фармацевтических компаний. Методологической основой исследования является гармонизация требований стандартов деловой практики со стандартами финансовой отчетности. Ð' статье используется метод пропорционально-типового отбора стабильно структурированных показателей эффективности компаний. Авторы не ограничивались запросами информации от инвесторов в одной стране, отдельных компаний или приоритетных областей интересов заинтересованных и вовлеченных лиц. Исследовательский подход реализован для многостороннего учета мнений заинтересованных сторон. Ð'аза данных исследования была составлена ​​на основе отчетов пяти компаний, таких как Johnson & Johnson, Novartis AG, Merck KGaA, Sanofi и Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. из базы данных Ð"лобальной инициативы по отчетности, и финансовых отчетов 20 фармацевтических компаний из группы «Ð"оступ к медицине». Индексная система в 2014 и 2016 годах. Результатом исследования стало то, что общая позиция 5 компаний поднялась с 8-го на 6-е место. Результат соотношения темпов роста их общего дохода, капитализации и долгосрочного капитала является положительным по сравнению с темпами роста качества их раскрытия нефинансовых показателей. Такие отношения являются самыми сильными в привлечении долгосрочного капитала, сопровождаемого ростом капитализации, и это наименьший рост выручки. Формат минимально необходимого набора гармонизированных показателей помогает повысить доверие заинтересованных сторон к финансовой и нефинансовой информации социально ответственных компаний. Новизна полученных результатов заключается в использовании метрического выражения качества показателей отчетности для оценки их полезности в деловой практике компаний с профилем производства. Результаты, полученные в ходе исследования, позволяют сделать обобщенный вывод о том, что полезная информация, полученная на основе гармонизации структурированных данных из финансовой и нефинансовой отчетности, способствует повышению уровня деловой активности и ее всесторонней эффективности для всех сторон. участвует в делах компании.

Fire Sale Risk and Expected Stock Returns
Aragon, George O.,Kim, Min S.
We measure a stock's exposure to fire sale risk through its ownership links to equity mutual funds that experience outflows during periods of systematic outflows from the fund industry. We find that more exposed stocks earn higher average returns: a portfolio that buys (shorts) stocks with the highest (lowest) exposure outperforms by 3-7% per annum. Our findings cannot be explained by several known determinants of average returns and are consistent with the ex-ante pricing of the risk of future fire sales. We conclude that stocks' exposures to risks inherited from the constraints of shareholders have important implications for stock prices.

Generalized Autoregressive Score asymmetric Laplace Distribution and Extreme Downward Risk Prediction
Shao-Peng Hong

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields and achieved good results. In this paper, under the framework of generalized autoregressive score (GAS), the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) is improved, and the GAS-ALD model is proposed, which has the characteristics of time-varying parameters, can describe the peak thick tail, biased and asymmetric distribution. The model is used to study the Shanghai index, Shenzhen index and SME board index. It is found that: 1) the distribution parameters and moments of the three indexes have obvious time-varying characteristics and aggregation characteristics. 2) Compared with the commonly used models for calculating VaR and ES, the GAS-ALD model has a high prediction effect.

Investors’ Beliefs and Asset Prices: A Structural Model of Cryptocurrency Demand
Benetton, Matteo,Compiani, Giovanni
We explore the impact of investors’ beliefs on cryptocurrency demand and prices using three new individual-level surveys. We find that younger individuals with lower income and education are more optimistic about the future value of cryptocurrencies, as are late investors. We then estimate the cryptocurrency demand functions using a structural model with rich heterogeneity in investors’ beliefs and preferences. To identify the model, we combine observable beliefs with an instrumental variable strategy that exploits variation in the amount of energy required for the production of the different cryptocurrencies. We find that beliefs explain a large fraction of the cross-sectional variance of returns. A counterfactual exercise shows that banning entry of late investors leads to a decrease in the price of Bitcoin by about $3,500, or approximately 30% of the price during the boom in January 2018. Late investors’ optimism alone can explain about a third of the decline.

Lender-Shareholder Distance and Loan Contract Terms
Huang, Xiaoran,Kang , Jun-Koo ,Zhang, Lei
We study how lender-shareholder distance affects loan contract terms. We hypothesize that an increase in lender-shareholder distance aggravates the lender’s information asymmetry vis-à-vis shareholders by making it difficult to observe shareholders’ risk preferences and their influence on management, preventing lenders from effectively monitoring shareholders' actions. Therefore, ex ante, lenders design loan contracts with stronger protection against shareholder misappropriation of assets by tightening price and non-price terms of loans. Supporting our hypothesis, we find that lender-shareholder distance is positively related to loan spreads, the likelihood of collateral requirements, and the number of covenants, and negatively related to loan maturities, loan accessibility, and covenant slack. These results are particularly pronounced among firms with more active institutional shareholders, firms with less diversified shareholders, lower-rated firms, and more financially constrained firms. Using an instrumental variables regression approach and the introduction of a new airline route as an exogenous shock to lender-shareholder distance does not change the results.

MFGs for partially reversible investment
Haoyang Cao,Xin Guo

This paper analyzes a class of infinite-time-horizon stochastic games with singular controls motivated from the partially reversible problem. It provides an explicit solution for the mean-field game (MFG) and presents sensitivity analysis to compare the solution for the MFG with that for the single-agent control problem. It shows that in the MFG, model parameters not only affect the optimal strategies as in the single-agent case, but also influence the equilibrium price. It then establishes that the solution to the MFG is an $\epsilon$-Nash Equilibrium to the corresponding $N$-player game, with $\epsilon=O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt N}\right)$.

Measuring Energy-saving Technological Change: International Trends and Differences
Emiko Inoue,Hiroya Taniguchi,Ken Yamada

Technological change is essential for balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability. This study measures and documents energy-saving technological change to understand its trends in advanced countries over recent decades. We estimate aggregate production functions with factor-augmenting technology using cross-country panel data and shift-share instruments, thereby measuring and documenting energy-saving technological change. Our results show how energy-saving technological change varies across countries over time and the extent to which it contributes to economic growth in 12 OECD countries from the years 1978 to 2005.

Modeling Supply-Chain Networks with Firm-to-Firm Wire Transfers
Thiago C. Silva,Diego R. Amancio,Benjamin M. Tabak

We study a novel economic network (supply chain) comprised of wire transfers (electronic payment transactions) among the universe of firms in Brazil (6.2 million firms). We construct a directed and weighted network in which vertices represent cities and edges connote pairwise economic dependence between cities. Cities (vertices) represent the collection of all firms in that location and links denote intercity wire transfers. We find a high degree of economic integration among cities in the trade network, which is consistent with the high degree of specialization found across Brazilian cities. We are able to identify which cities have a dominant role in the entire supply chain process using centrality network measures. We find that the trade network has a disassortative mixing pattern, which is consistent with the power-law shape of the firm size distribution in Brazil. After the Brazilian recession in 2014, we find that the disassortativity becomes even stronger as a result of the death of many small firms and the consequent concentration of economic flows on large firms. Our results suggest that recessions have a large impact on the trade network with meaningful and heterogeneous economic consequences across municipalities. We run econometric exercises and find that courts efficiency plays a dual role. From the customer perspective, it plays an important role in reducing contractual frictions as it increases economic transactions between different cities. From the supplier perspective, cities that are central suppliers to the supply chain seem to use courts inefficiency as a lawsuit barrier from their customers.

New Models of ‘Intelligent Investing’ for the Post-Crisis Economy
Fenwick, Mark,Vermeulen, Erik P. M.
Is coronavirus accelerating the future? Will the crisis provide a tipping point that encourages corporations to promote socially desirable values? Will there be a wider recognition that a sole focus on profits and investors hurts both companies and society? Or, will we simply return to business-as-usual once the memory of the crisis fades?The financially driven corporate world has been losing its appeal over recent years and an anti-corporate sentiment has become more prevalent. There is a greater demand for better standards of corporate behavior and new metrics for judging corporate success. What is ironic is that corporations that embrace a more stakeholder-oriented purpose already outperform their peers when it comes to stock market returns. When thinking about rebuilding the economy post-crisis, this paper argues that investors need to be encouraged to take ‘intelligent risks’ that focus on stakeholder-oriented listed and non-listed companies.

Optimal investment-consumption problem: post-retirement with minimum guarantee
Hassan Dadashi

We study the optimal investment-consumption problem for a member of defined contribution plan during the decumulation phase. For a fixed annuitization time, to achieve higher final annuity, we consider a variable consumption rate. Moreover, to have a minimum guarantee for the final annuity, a safety level for the wealth process is considered. To solve the stochastic optimal control problem via dynamic programming, we obtain a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation on a bounded domain. The existence and uniqueness of classical solutions are proved through the dual transformation. We apply the finite difference method to find numerical approximations of the solution of the HJB equation. Finally, the simulation results for the optimal investment-consumption strategies, optimal wealth process and the final annuity for different admissible ranges of consumption are given. Furthermore, by taking into account the market present value of the cash flows before and after the annuitization, we compare the outcomes of different scenarios.

Political Uncertainty and Asset Valuation: Housing Prices in Hong Kong
He, Zhiguo,Hu, Maggie,Wang, Zhenping,Yao, Vincent
We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty in a long-term asset market, guided by a theoretical model of housing assets subject to contract extension in the remote future. To identify exposure to political uncertainty, we exploit a unique variation around land lease extension protection beyond 2047 in Hong Kong’s housing market due to the historical arrangements under the “One Country, Two Systems” design. We find political uncertainty is priced, as predicted by theory, in that relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with legally unprotected leases granted by the current Hong Kong government are sold at a substantial discount of around 8%. Similar contracts issued during the colonial era suffer an additional discount of about 8% due to their reneging risk. Our calibrated model implies that to extend their leases homeowners expect about 25% of penalty on ground rent after 2047. The discount is higher when people’s confidence declines and where residents feel more uncertain of the city’s future.

Private Information Dissemination in the Secondary Loan Market
Saunders, Anthony ,Shao, Pei,Xiao, Yuchao
We consider loans being marked to market to constitute information about borrowing firms’ profitability and risk only immediately available to large institutional traders, so-called qualified institutional buyers (QIBs). Smaller investors, so-called non-QIBs, do not have immediate access to such information because they are not qualified to enter the secondary loan market. We investigate the effect of privileged information releases first on stock bid-ask spreads, then on the abnormal returns QIBs earn by trading borrowing firms’ stock. We show QIBs to actively trade on information in the equity market, elevating the level of information asymmetry while earning significant returns. Our paper reveals private information dissemination in the secondary loan market to affect the stock market information environment and yield benefits to large insiders with priority access to important information about the quality of borrowing firms.

Quality of Work Life (QWL) Situation in the Nepalese Corporate Sector
Shrestha, Sulochana
Background: Existing literature on QWL and CG supports that effective compliance of CG is dependent on how the institution is nourished with the spirit of QWL and CG maintains relationship between the company’s man­agement, board of directors, shareholders, employees, and auditors and stakeholders. Moreover, QWL consider different components like autono­my of work, compensation and rewards, job satisfaction and job security, quality of work life, relation and co-operation, training and development, work environment.Objectives: The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the factors, dimensions and policy implications to foster quality of work life (QWL) situation in organizations, especially in the Nepalese corporate sector.Methods: Fully based on qualitative desk review and analyses.Results: This paper has attempted to establish relationship between the determinants of QWL situation and corporate governance (CG) from a positivists’ perspective. In the present Nepalese context, several challeng­ing factors, such as, employee attitude, working environment, opportuni­ties, nature of work, stress, job challenges, development and career poten­tial are affecting QWL attainment.Conclusions: QWL promotes adequate and fair compensation, safe and healthy working condition, opportunity to use and develop human capabil­ities, opportunity to growth and security, social integration, constitution­alism, social relevance of work life; work and total life span of the people.Implications: Robust QWL standardization, monitoring and evaluation be in place to govern all corporate entities in a meaningful manner.

Risk and Return in International Corporate Bond Markets
De Santis, Roberto A.,Bekaert, Geert
Corporate bond returns in the major developed economies increase with risk, as measured by maturity and ratings. From a pricing perspective, we find little to no evidence against the World CAPM model, where the market consists out of equity, sovereign and corporate bonds. However, from a factor model perspective, local factors contribute substantially more to the variation of corporate bond returns than global factors. The factor exposures show intuitive patterns: as ratings worsen, equity betas show a hockey stick pattern, sovereign betas decline monotonically and corporate bond betas increase steeply.

Taxes and Merger Activity: Evidence From a Quasi-Natural Experiment
Atanassov, Julian,Bhagwat, Vineet,Liu, Xiaoding
Using staggered changes in state corporate income tax rates, we document that firms are more likely to undertake an acquisition and pay cash for it when taxes increase. The likelihood is greater for financially constrained firms. We find no change in the CAR and takeover premia after tax increases, suggesting that mergers are only used to undo the negative effect of higher taxes on firm value. Finally, we demonstrate that a target is more likely to be acquired if its state corporate income tax rate decreases. The acquisition of targets in lower tax states is followed by a shift in operations by the acquiring firm to the state of the target to reduce its tax burden.

The Choice Between Public and Private Debt by Russian Companies at Different Stages of the Life Cycle (Ð'ыбор Между Ð"осударственным и Частным Ð"олгом Российских Компаний На Разных Этапах Жизненного Цикла)
Rossokhin , Vladimir,Ryabova , Elena
English Abstract: The problems of formation of the company’s capital structure to date have already been studied well. A large number of theoretical papers and empirical studies devoted to this issue have been published. However, managers are confronted not only with the question of the optimal balance between equity and debt capital, but also with the choice of debt structure in the presence of several of its sources, such as public and private debt. This is a new paradigm in corporate finance. On the one hand, companies are not always ready to issue listed securities at the initial stages of their activity. On the other hand, raising funds in open markets has several advantages. With the help of public debt, one can attract a sufficiently large amount of financial resources with a lower cost in comparison with private borrowing. At the same time, as a rule, the public debt is not secured by the assets in the proper amount. According to the author’s opinion, in dealing with this question, companies can take into account not only the current state of the company and its financial indicators, but also the stages of the life cycle, since each of them has its own development features. The purpose of this study is to analyze whether life cycle stages and other financial indicators of a company affect the choice of a source of borrowed capital (private or public debt), thereby to contribute to the development of this research direction. The objects of study are Russian companies. In the empirical part of the study, the binary choice model had been applied. The sample size is 1,818 companies, the financial statements for three years were used. The stages of the organization’s life cycle were calculated by the method of V. Dickinson. A number of control variables were also included in the model. The results of empirical analysis indicate that the company decides to issue public debt, regardless of the stage of the life cycle. This allows us to conclude that the company, when conceptually resolving the question about the structure of borrowed capital, relies on economic indicators such as profitability, size of the company, structure of assets and financial leverage. Understanding this fact can also help potential investors in making investment decisions to form conservative portfolios.Russian Abstract: Проблемы формирования структуры капитала компании на сегодняшний день уже хорошо изучены. Ð'ыло опубликовано большое количество теоретических работ и эмпирических исследований, посвященных этой проблеме. Однако менеджеры сталкиваются не только с вопросом оптимального баланса между собственным и заемным капиталом, но и с выбором структуры долга при наличии нескольких его источников, таких как государственный и частный долг. Это новая парадигма в корпоративных финансах. С одной стороны, компании не всегда готовы выпустить листинговые ценные бумаги на начальных этапах своей деятельности. С другой стороны, привлечение средств на открытых рынках имеет ряд преимуществ. С помощью государственного долга можно привлечь достаточно большой объем финансовых ресурсов с меньшими затратами по сравнению с частными займами. Ð' то же время, как правило, государственный долг не обеспечен активами в надлежащем размере. По мнению автора, при решении этого вопроса компании могут учитывать не только текущее состояние компании и ее финансовые показатели, но и этапы жизненного цикла, поскольку каждый из них имеет свои особенности развития. Цель данного исследования - проанализировать, влияют ли стадии жизненного цикла и другие финансовые показатели компании на выбор источника заемного капитала (частного или государственного долга), тем самым способствуя развитию этого направления исследований. Объектами исследования являются российские компании. Ð' эмпирической части исследования использовалась модель бинарного выбора. Размер выборки составляет 1818 компаний, использовалась финансовая отчетность за три года. Этапы жизненного цикла организации рассчитывались по методике Ð'. Ð"икинсона. Ряд контрольных переменных также были включены в модель. Результаты эмпирического анализа свидетельствуют о том, что компания решает выпустить государственный долг независимо от стадии жизненного цикла. Это позволяет сделать вывод, что компания при концептуальном решении вопроса о структуре заемного капитала опирается на экономические показатели, такие как рентабельность, размер компании, структура активов и финансовый рычаг. Понимание этого факта может также помочь потенциальным инвесторам в принятии инвестиционных решений для формирования консервативных портфелей.

The Impact of Domestic Mergers and Acquisitions on the Operating Profit Margins of Companies in Russia (Ð'лияние Ð'нутренних Слияний и Поглощений На Маржу Операционной Прибыли Компаний в России)
Mikhalchuk, Vitaly
English Abstract: This research paper studies the impact of domestic Russian mergers and acquisitions on the operating profit margin of companies participating in deals. The goal of the research is to evaluate the changes in operating profit margin, and to analyse the significance of factors affecting operating profit margin after deals have been concluded. The main scientific contribution of this research is the development of a methodology to analyse the effect of mergers and acquisitions on operating profit margins that takes into account the idiosyncratic features of the Russian market, and which can be used with limited information for analysis of private companies. The proposed methodology is based on benchmarking the operating profit margin of companies participating in a deal against the same variable for a portfolio of similar companies. Based on the analysis of recent studies, several explanatory variables were proposed to explain the changes in operating profit margin after the deal. Among these were included real GDP growth, type and value of the deal, book value of assets of the target company, as well as a number of control variables. A random effects model with robust standard errors was used to test the significance of factors affecting operating profit margin. This methodology was applied to a sample of 73 domestic Russian deals observed in the period 2012-2019. This research makes several practical contributions to the literature. In the studied sample, deals lead to an increase of operating profit margin by 4.6% relative to the period before the deal, and 2.5% relative to the benchmark portfolio. The highest growth of operating profit margin relative to the benchmark portfolio is observed 2 years after the deal. This growth is increased by the purchase of large companies in the same industry. There is a significant negative effect of the deal value and a strong indication that buyers tend to overpay for the target companies relative to their fair value. This research will be of practical use for persons in management positions to estimate the value of prospective deals, and for academic researchers interested in the analysis of mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets.Russian Abstract: Ð' данном исследовании исследуется влияние российских российских слияний и поглощений на маржу операционной прибыли компаний, участвующих в сделках. Цель исследования - оценить изменения маржи операционной прибыли и проанализировать значимость факторов, влияющих на маржу операционной прибыли после заключения сделок. Основным научным вкладом этого исследования является разработка методологии для анализа влияния слияний и поглощений на маржу операционной прибыли, которая учитывает специфические особенности российского рынка и которая может использоваться с ограниченной информацией для анализа частных компаний. , Предлагаемая методология основана на сопоставлении маржи операционной прибыли компаний, участвующих в сделке, с той же переменной для портфеля аналогичных компаний. На основе анализа последних исследований было предложено несколько поясняющих переменных, объясняющих изменения маржи операционной прибыли после сделки. Среди них были рост реального Ð'Ð'П, тип и стоимость сделки, балансовая стоимость активов целевой компании, а также ряд контрольных переменных. Модель случайных эффектов с устойчивыми стандартными ошибками использовалась для проверки значимости факторов, влияющих на маржу операционной прибыли. Эта методология была применена к выборке из 73 внутренних российских сделок, наблюдавшихся в период 2012-2019 гг. Это исследование вносит несколько практических вкладов в литературу. Ð' исследуемой выборке сделки приводят к увеличению маржи операционной прибыли на 4,6% относительно периода до сделки и на 2,5% относительно эталонного портфеля. Наибольший рост маржи операционной прибыли относительно эталонного портфеля наблюдается через 2 года после сделки. Этот рост увеличивается за счет покупки крупных компаний в той же отрасли. Существует значительный негативный эффект от стоимости сделки и явный признак того, что покупатели склонны переплачивать за целевые компании относительно их справедливой стоимости. Это исследование будет полезно для лиц, занимающих руководящие должности, для оценки стоимости предполагаемых сделок, а также для научных исследователей, заинтересованных в анализе слияний и поглощений на развивающихся рынках.

Total Quality Management in an Insurance Company: Use of Balanced Scorecards to Meet the Interests of Stakeholders (Полное Управление Качеством в Страховой Компании: Использование Сбалансированных Систем Показателей Ð"ля Удовлетворения Интересов Заинтересованных Сторон)
Tsvetkova, Lyudmila
English Abstract: The insurance company is a financial intermediary between stakeholders - a set of participants in the insurance process and those who have received the right to insurance payment, as well as insuring parties who purchase insurance coverage and shareholders whose capital is involved in its guarantee. Satisfaction of stakeholders creates a company’s free access to exchanged resources, thereby optimizing operations and increasing the efficiency of capital use. The implementation of the Total Quality Management (TQM) system, which could help achieve the goal, is complicated in insurance companies by dividing the personnel who create the insurance service, by the factor of time, since it is possible to check the quality only after the client has used it, which does not always arise in insurance, and often by the factor of location of units at geographically different points, which makes it virtually impossible for the simultaneous and equal participation of personnel in production processes, that requires innovative management tools. The purpose of this study is to study the effect of introducing a Total Quality Management (TQM) system and a balanced scorecard (BSC) on the activities of an insurance company, including the one aimed at achieving the satisfaction of its stakeholders. Using the methods of induction and synthesis of freely available data of SOGAZ, Rosgosstrakh, and ROSNO companies, a complex of dependent corporate goals was identified that were ranked relative to the organizational level. The results of the study allow concluding that the concept of balanced indicators allows to indicatively monitor the quality of meeting the interests of the main stakeholders of the company, which creates new effective tools for improving resource exchange and does not allow distortions in management. The integration of strategic planning and TQM opens up new market growth opportunities for insurance companies in the context of a limited portfolio of services for a strictly limited audience. The paper provides specific recommendations for organizations to resolve problems that impede the successful implementation of TQM. The results of this study can be used by officials of insurance companies in developing strategies and tactics for their development, including the implementation of BSC and TQM, as well as scientists for a deeper study of the results of the implementation of BSC and TQM, both in the insurance industry and other sectors of the economy.Russian Abstract: Страховая компания является финансовым посредником между заинтересованными сторонами - совокупностью участников страхового процесса и теми, кто получил право на страховую выплату, а также страхующими сторонами, которые приобретают страховое покрытие, и акционерами, капитал которых участвует в его гарантии. Удовлетворенность заинтересованных сторон создает компании свободный доступ к обмениваемым ресурсам, оптимизируя тем самым операции и повышая эффективность использования капитала. Ð'недрение системы Total Quality Management (TQM), которая может помочь в достижении цели, усложняется в страховых компаниях разделением персонала, который создает страховую услугу, на фактор времени, так как качество можно проверить только после клиент использовал его, что не всегда возникает в страховании, и часто из-за фактора расположения подразделений в географически разных точках, что делает практически невозможным одновременное и равное участие персонала в производственных процессах, что требует инновационных инструментов управления , Целью данного исследования является изучение влияния внедрения системы Total Quality Management (TQM) и системы сбалансированных показателей (BSC) на деятельность страховой компании, включая ту, которая направлена ​​на достижение удовлетворенности ее заинтересованных сторон. Используя методы индукции и обобщения свободно доступных данных компаний СОÐ"АЗ, Росгосстрах и РОСНО, был выявлен комплекс зависимых корпоративных целей, которые были ранжированы относительно организационного уровня. Результаты исследования позволяют сделать вывод о том, что концепция сбалансированных показателей позволяет индикативно контролировать качество удовлетворения интересов основных заинтересованных сторон компании, что создает новые эффективные инструменты для улучшения обмена ресурсами и не допускает перекосов в управлении. Интеграция стратегического планирования и TQM открывает новые возможности роста рынка для страховых компаний в контексте ограниченного портфеля услуг для строго ограниченной аудитории. Ð' документе содержатся конкретные рекомендации для организаций по решению проблем, препятствующих успешному внедрению TQM. Результаты этого исследования могут быть использованы должностными лицами страховых компаний при разработке стратегий и тактик их развития, включая внедрение BSC и TQM, а также учеными для более глубокого изучения результатов внедрения BSC и TQM, как в сфере страхования и других отраслях экономики.

Transforming Corporate Governance Through Effective Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Social Entrepreneurship Orientation in Nepal
Parajuli, Seeprata
Background: Different studies and development interventions have confirmed that socio-economic progress of a society is largely influenced by the exhibited level of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and social entrepreneurship orientation taken into account. This reality may serve in the same magnitude in context of present Nepalese corporate sector. However, different studies indicate that only a limited number of organizations are involved in such activities in the present context of Nepal. On the other hand, truthful participation with corporate social responsibility (CSR) related initiatives has been made mandatory in many countries thereby governing the CSR initiatives by defined rules and regulations.Objectives: The thrust of this paper was to understand the magnitude and direction of CSR and social entrepreneurial orientation of the Nepalese corporate sector, its current state, issues, challenges and ways forward.Methods: Accomplished on qualitative paradigm of study as a blend of guided literature reviews, seminar discourses and general situation observation and analyses, it may be claimed as a developmental discourse.Results: The Nepalese corporate sector has been positively inclined towards enhancement of brand image, reputation and societal relationship by means of truthful engagement in CSR and societal entrepreneurship initiatives.Conclusions: The attainment of socio-economic well-being can be witnessed by implementing effective CSR and social entrepreneurship initiatives. Insufficient preparedness of the public agencies with lack of follow-up, financing crises, traditional corporate policies and procedures have been the impeding issues affecting the design and execution of CSR and social entrepreneurship initiatives at present in Nepal.Implications: Required strict policy regulations at governing level and effective programming at implementation at corporate or industry level.

Transparency and Accountability in the Nepalese Corporate Sector: A Critical Assessment
Kharel, Saramsh
Background: In the present changing context of Nepal, accountability and transparency may not only be treated as functionally interdependent, but also equally important in the process of maintaining effective governance in all contexts by imparting a system based on fairness, ethics, accountability, transparency and delivered quality. Therefore, it is essential for organizations to follow the pathways of sustainable governance in order to enhance their desired level system efficiency and effectiveness.Objectives: Primarily, the present work was accomplished to have a critical assessment of prevalence of corporate governance in the Nepalese corporate sector with focus on compliance of transparency and accountability.Methods: The present work was accomplished using a fully qualitative method of inquiry by performing a compliance review of transparency and accountability.Results: Universal evidence of existing literature confirms that accountability and transparency play vital role in transforming organizational trustworthiness. The practice of transparency provides access to convenient and reliable information required to enhance organizational decision-making, which ultimately results in improved level of performance. As a component ethical management, corporate governance, refers to the visionary proposition of organizational leadership for shared expectations of valued stakeholders. The world practices confirm that both transparency and accountability should go side by side to achieve quality and ethical organizational system practices, results and outcomes.Conclusions: Since Nepal is a new practitioner of modern concepts of corporate governance, its effective compliance is still infant. Thus, the Government of Nepal needs to devise and enact needful policy reforms.Implications: The present paper may serve instrumental as it attempts to analyze the existing evidences, discusses how approaches to learning of transparency and accountability might be improved, and recommends how the Nep­alese corporate sector in the field of CG could be enhanced and empowered with a vision to sustainable corporate development and promotion in the country.

Two-Parametric / Game-Theory Model of a Service Concession in the Communal Heating Sector (Ð"вухпараметрическая / теоретико-игровая модель сервисной концессии в секторе коммунального отопления)
Khutoretskii , Alexander ,Nefedkin , Nefedkin
English Abstract: In this study, we propose to model the operation of a service concession arrangement in the economic area of municipal heat supply utilities. We offer a scheme of interaction between the concedent and concessionaire in this concessionary arrangement. Currently, the existing regulations regarding the temperature of coolant focusses on the daily average outdoor temperature, and the determination of a “normative” demand for heat energy. On any day of the heating period, this demand is a random variable, whose distribution can be described through the distribution of daily average air temperature. In our model, heat energy is paid for at a fixed price, and the concessionaire pays a penalty for each unit of unsatisfied normative demand. The price and penalty values are the concession parameters, and are determined by the concedent. The concedent’s goal is to minimise the thermal energy cost; the concessionaire’s purpose is to maximise profit. The interaction is formalised as a two-move game model. First, the concedent determines the price and the value of the penalty. Then the concessionaire selects the capacity to be created. The concession’s parameters should be set so that the individual rationality and incentive compatibility conditions are met. Our results prove the existence of Stackelberg equilibrium, and we derive the relevant formulas for computing its parameters. In equilibrium, the optimum capacity for the concessionaire provides a sufficient probability of meeting demand. The price of thermal energy is minimal under this condition. We also formulate a one-parameter model (thermal energy price as a parameter), which is based on a typical concession scheme. In the two-parameter model, the equilibrium capacity and price do not exceed the corresponding parameters of the one-parameter model. The main advantage of the two-parameter model is an “embedded” economic mechanism that prevents the concessionaire’s opportunistic behaviour. By contrast, in the one-parameter model there is no such mechanism. The proposed approach can be applied to a concession for the production of any good or service, provided the concerned parties are interested in the availability and reliability of meeting a corresponding need, which may be described as a random variable. However, typical concession schemes do not penalise unsatisfied demand, so the implementation of our two-parametric model is possible only after modification of the pertinent concession legislation.Russian Abstract: Ð' этом исследовании мы предлагаем смоделировать работу механизма концессионных услуг в экономической зоне коммунальных предприятий теплоснабжения. Мы предлагаем схему взаимодействия концедента и концессионера в этой концессионной договоренности. Ð' настоящее время действующие нормативы, касающиеся температуры охлаждающей жидкости, ориентированы на среднесуточную температуру наружного воздуха и определяют «нормативный» спрос на тепловую энергию. Ð' любой день отопительного периода это требование является случайной величиной, распределение которой можно описать посредством распределения среднесуточной температуры воздуха. Ð' нашей модели тепловая энергия оплачивается по фиксированной цене, а концессионер платит штраф за каждую единицу неудовлетворенного нормативного спроса. Цена и размер штрафа являются параметрами концессии и определяются концедентом. Цель концедента - минимизировать стоимость тепловой энергии; цель концессионера - максимизировать прибыль. Ð'заимодействие оформляется в виде двухэтапной игровой модели. Сначала концедент определяет цену и стоимость штрафа. Затем концессионер выбирает емкость, которая будет создана. Параметры концессии должны быть установлены таким образом, чтобы соблюдались индивидуальные условия рациональности и стимулирующей совместимости. Наши результаты доказывают существование равновесия Штакельберга, и мы выводим соответствующие формулы для вычисления его параметров. Ð' равновесии оптимальная мощность для концессионера обеспечивает достаточную вероятность удовлетворения спроса. Цена тепловой энергии минимальна при этом условии. Мы также формулируем однопараметрическую модель (цена тепловой энергии как параметр), которая основана на типичной схеме концессии. Ð' двухпараметрической модели равновесная емкость и цена не превышают соответствующие параметры однопараметрической модели. Основным преимуществом двухпараметрической модели является «встроенный» экономический механизм, который предотвращает оппортунистическое поведение концессионера. Напротив, в однопараметрической модели такого механизма нет. Предлагаемый подход может быть применен к концессии на производство любого товара или услуги, при условии, что заинтересованные стороны заинтересованы в наличии и надежности удовлетворения соответствующей потребности, которая может быть описана как случайная величина. Однако типичные концессионные схемы не наказывают неудовлетворенный спрос, поэтому реализация нашей двухпараметрической модели возможна только после внесения изменений в соответствующее концессионное законодательство.