Understanding disaggregate channels in the transmission of monetary policy is of crucial importance for effectively implementing policy measures. We extend the empirical econometric literature on the role of production networks in the propagation of shocks along two dimensions. First, we allow for industry-specific responses that vary over time, reflecting non-linearities and cross-sectional heterogeneities in direct transmission channels. Second, we allow for time-varying network structures and dependence. This feature captures both variation in the structure of the production network, but also differences in cross-industry demand elasticities. We find that impacts vary substantially over time and the cross-section. Higher-order effects appear to be particularly important in periods of economic and financial uncertainty, often coinciding with tight credit market conditions and financial stress. Differentials in industry-specific responses can be explained by how close the respective industries are to end-consumers.

To the best of our knowledge, the application of deep learning in the field of quantitative risk management is still a relatively recent phenomenon. This article presents the key notions of Deep Asset Liability Management (Deep~ALM) for a technological transformation in the management of assets and liabilities along a whole term structure. The approach has a profound impact on a wide range of applications such as optimal decision making for treasurers, optimal procurement of commodities or the optimisation of hydroelectric power plants. As a by-product, intriguing aspects of goal-based investing or Asset Liability Management (ALM) in abstract terms concerning urgent challenges of our society are expected alongside. We illustrate the potential of the approach in a stylised case.

This paper uses a new textual data index for predicting stock market data. The index is applied to a large set of news to evaluate the importance of one or more general economic related keywords appearing in the text. The index assesses the importance of the economic related keywords, based on their frequency of use and semantic network position. We apply it to the Italian press and construct indices to predict Italian stock and bond market returns and volatilities in a recent sample period, including the COVID-19 crisis. The evidence shows that the index captures well the different phases of financial time series. Moreover, results indicate strong evidence of predictability for bond market data, both returns and volatilities, short and long maturities, and stock market volatility.

In the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market, lenders lend the money to the borrowers through a virtual platform and earn the possible profit generated by the interest rate. From the perspective of lenders, they want to maximize the profit while minimizing the risk. Therefore, many studies have used machine learning algorithms to help the lenders identify the "best" loans for making investments. The studies have mainly focused on two categories to guide the lenders' investments: one aims at minimizing the risk of investment (i.e., the credit scoring perspective) while the other aims at maximizing the profit (i.e., the profit scoring perspective). However, they have all focused on one category only and there is seldom research trying to integrate the two categories together. Motivated by this, we propose a two-stage framework that incorporates the credit information into a profit scoring modeling. We conducted the empirical experiment on a real-world P2P lending data from the US P2P market and used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (lightGBM) algorithm in the two-stage framework. Results show that the proposed two-stage method could identify more profitable loans and thereby provide better investment guidance to the investors compared to the existing one-stage profit scoring alone approach. Therefore, the proposed framework serves as an innovative perspective for making investment decisions in P2P lending.

Cryptocurrencies (CCs) have risen rapidly in market capitalization over the last years. Despite striking price volatility, their high average returns have drawn attention to CCs as alternative investment assets for portfolio and risk management. We investigate the utility gains for different types of investors when they consider cryptocurrencies as an addition to their portfolio of traditional assets. We consider risk-averse, return-seeking as well as diversificationpreferring investors who trade along different allocation frequencies, namely daily, weekly or monthly. Out-of-sample performance and diversification benefits are studied for the most popular portfolio-construction rules, including mean-variance optimization, risk-parity, and maximum-diversification strategies, as well as combined strategies. To account for low liquidity in CC markets, we incorporate liquidity constraints via the LIBRO method. Our results show that CCs can improve the risk-return profile of portfolios. In particular, a maximum-diversification strategy (maximizing the Portfolio Diversification Index, PDI) draws appreciably on CCs, and spanning tests clearly indicate that CC returns are non-redundant additions to the investment universe. Though our analysis also shows that illiquidity of CCs potentially reverses the results.

Yes, but only at short lags. In this paper we investigate the relationship between factor momentum and stock momentum. Using a sample of 72 factors documented in the literature, we first replicate earlier findings that factor momentum exists and works both directionally and cross-sectionally. We then ask if factor momentum is spanned by stock momentum. A simple spanning test reveals that after controlling for stock momentum and factor exposure, statistically significant Sharpe ratios only belong to implementations which include the last month of returns. We conclude this study with a simple theoretical model that captures these forces: (1) there is stock-level mean reversion at short lags and momentum at longer lags, (2) there is stock and factor momentum at all lags and (3) there is natural comovement between the PNLs of stock and factor momentums at all horizons.

The least square Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is widely used for pricing American options. The LSM estimator contains undesirable look-ahead bias, and the conventional technique of removing it necessitates doubling simulations. We present the leave-one-out LSM (LOOLSM) algorithm for efficiently eliminating look-ahead bias. We also show that look-ahead bias is asymptotically proportional to the regressors-to-simulation paths ratio. Our findings are demonstrated with several option examples, including the multi-asset cases that the LSM algorithm significantly overvalues. The LOOLSM method can be extended to other regression-based algorithms improving the LSM method.

The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system.

This work researches the impact of including a wider range of participants in the strategy-making process on the performance of organizations which operate in either moderately or highly complex environments. Agent-based simulation demonstrates that the increased number of ideas generated from larger and diverse crowds and subsequent preference aggregation lead to rapid discovery of higher peaks in the organization's performance landscape. However, this is not the case when the expansion in the number of participants is small. The results confirm the most frequently mentioned benefit in the Open Strategy literature: the discovery of better performing strategies.

We develop a tractable equilibrium model for price formation in intraday electricity markets in the presence of intermittent renewable generation. Using stochastic control theory we identify the optimal strategies of agents with market impact and exhibit the Nash equilibrium in closed form for a finite number of agents as well as in the asymptotic framework of mean field games. Our model reproduces the empirical features of intraday market prices, such as increasing price volatility at the approach of the delivery date and the correlation between price and renewable infeed forecasts, and relates these features with market characteristics like liquidity, number of agents, and imbalance penalty.

In the peer to peer (P2P) lending platform, investors hope to maximize their return while minimizing the risk through a comprehensive understanding of the P2P market. A low and stable average default rate across all the borrowers denotes a healthy P2P market and provides investors more confidence in a promising investment. Therefore, having a powerful model to describe the trend of the default rate in the P2P market is crucial. Different from previous studies that focus on modeling the default rate at the individual level, in this paper, we are the first to comprehensively explore the monthly trend of the default rate at the aggregative level for the P2P data from October 2007 to January 2016 in the US. We use the long short term memory (LSTM) approach to sequentially predict the default risk of the borrowers in Lending Club, which is the largest P2P lending platform in the US. Although being first applied in modeling the P2P sequential data, the LSTM approach shows its great potential by outperforming traditionally utilized time series models in our experiments. Furthermore, incorporating the macroeconomic feature \textit{unemp\_rate} (i.e., unemployment rate) can improve the LSTM performance by decreasing RMSE on both the training and the testing datasets. Our study can broaden the applications of the LSTM algorithm by using it on the sequential P2P data and guide the investors in making investment strategies.

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally that took place from August 7-16 was one of the largest public gatherings since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over 460,000 visitors from across the United States travelled to Sturgis, South Dakota to attend the ten day event. Using anonymous cell phone tracking data we identify the home counties of visitors to the rally and examine the impact of the rally on the spread of COVID-19. Our baseline estimate suggests a one standard deviation increase in Sturgis attendance increased COVID-19 case growth by 1.1pp in the weeks after the rally.

We propose an accurate data-driven numerical scheme to solve Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs), by taking large time steps. The SDE discretization is built up by means of a polynomial chaos expansion method, on the basis of accurately determined stochastic collocation (SC) points. By employing an artificial neural network to learn these SC points, we can perform Monte Carlo simulations with large time steps. Error analysis confirms that this data-driven scheme results in accurate SDE solutions in the sense of strong convergence, provided the learning methodology is robust and accurate. With a variant method called the compression-decompression collocation and interpolation technique, we can drastically reduce the number of neural network functions that have to be learned, so that computational speed is enhanced. Numerical results shows the high quality strong convergence error results, when using large time steps, and the novel scheme outperforms some classical numerical SDE discretizations. Some applications, here in financial option valuation, are also presented.

The impacts of COVID-19 reach far beyond the hundreds of lives lost to the disease; in particular, the pre-existing learning crisis is expected to be magnified during school shutdown. Despite efforts to put distance learning strategies in place, the threat of student dropouts, especially among adolescents, looms as a major concern. Are interventions to motivate adolescents to stay in school effective amidst the pandemic? Here we show that, in Brazil, nudges via text messages to high-school students, to motivate them to stay engaged with school activities, substantially reduced dropouts during school shutdown, and greatly increased their motivation to go back to school when classes resume. While such nudges had been shown to decrease dropouts during normal times, it is surprising that those impacts replicate in the absence of regular classes because their effects are typically mediated by teachers (whose effort in the classroom changes in response to the nudges). Results show that insights from the science of adolescent psychology can be leveraged to shift developmental trajectories at a critical juncture. They also qualify those insights: effects increase with exposure and gradually fade out once communication stops, providing novel evidence that motivational interventions work by redirecting adolescents' attention.

This paper provides a mathematical framework based on the principle of invariance to classify institutions in two paradigms according to the way in which credit, debit and funding adjustments are calculated: accounting and management perspectives. This conceptual classification helps to answer questions such as: In which paradigm each institution sits (point of situation)? Where is the market consensus and regulation pointing to (target point)? What are the implications, pros and cons of switching perspective to align with future consensus (design of a transition)? An improved solution of the principle of invariance equations is presented to calculate these metrics avoiding approximations and irrespective of the discounting curve used in Front Office systems. The perspective is changed by appropriate selection of inputs always using the same calculation engine. A description of balance sheet financing is presented along with the justification of the funding curves used for both perspectives.