In today's economy, selling a new zero-marginal cost product is a real challenge, as it is difficult to determine a product's "correct" sales price based on its profit and dissemination. As an example, think of the price of a new app or video game. New sales mechanisms for selling this type of product need to be designed, in particular ones that consider consumer preferences and reality. Current auction mechanisms establish a time deadline for the auction to take place. This deadline is set to increase the number of bidders and thus the final offering price. Consumers want to obtain the product as quickly as possible from the moment they become interested in it, and this time does not always coincide with the seller's deadline. Naturally, consumers also want to pay a price they consider "fair". Here we introduce an auction model where buyers continuously place bids and the challenge is to decide quickly whether or not to accept them. The model does not include a deadline for placing bids, and exhibits self-organized criticality; it presents a critical price from which a bid is accepted with probability one, and avalanches of sales above this value are observed. This model is of particular interest for startup companies interested in profit as well as making the product known on the market.

TV serials are a popular source of entertainment. The ongoing COVID19 lockdown has a high probability of degrading the publics mental health. The Government of India started the retelecast of yesteryears popular TV serials on public broadcaster Doordarshan from 28th March 2020 to 31st July 2020. Tweets corresponding to the Doordarshan hashtag were mined to create a dataset. The experiment aims to analyze the publics response to the retelecast of TV serials by calculating the sentiment score of the tweet dataset. Datasets mean sentiment score of 0.65 and high share 64.58% of positive tweets signifies the acceptance of Doordarshans retelecast decision. The sentiment analysis result also reflects the positive state of mind of the public.

The novel of coronavirus (COVID-19) has suddenly and abruptly changed the world as we knew at the start of the 3rd decade of the 21st century. Particularly, COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected financial econometrics and stock markets across the globe. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based prediction models, especially Deep Neural Network (DNN) architectures, have the potential to act as a key enabling factor to reduce the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and future possible ones on financial markets. In this regard, first, a unique COVID-19 related PRIce MOvement prediction (COVID19 PRIMO) dataset is introduced in this paper, which incorporates effects of social media trends related to COVID-19 on stock market price movements. Afterwards, a novel hybrid and parallel DNN-based framework is proposed that integrates different and diversified learning architectures. Referred to as the COVID-19 adopted Hybrid and Parallel deep fusion framework for Stock price Movement Prediction (COVID19-HPSMP), innovative fusion strategies are used to combine scattered social media news related to COVID-19 with historical mark data. The proposed COVID19-HPSMP consists of two parallel paths (hence hybrid), one based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with Local/Global Attention modules, and one integrated CNN and Bi-directional Long Short term Memory (BLSTM) path. The two parallel paths are followed by a multilayer fusion layer acting as a fusion centre that combines localized features. Performance evaluations are performed based on the introduced COVID19 PRIMO dataset illustrating superior performance of the proposed framework.

Understanding the dynamics of patents and trademarks is a key aspect of tracking innovative progress/egress. This paper empirically explores the chronological Hurst exponent (CHE), an approach that calculates the Hurst exponent over an increasing duration of time windows to quantify long-memory dynamics, in the monthly numbers of United States patent and trademark applications from 1977 to 2016. The CHE is found to increase in a clear 3-period S-curve pattern, achieving persistence (Period 3: H~1) from non-persistence (Period 1: H~0.5). For patents, Period 2, the time-varying period, occurred over a span of 10 years (1980-1990), while it was much sharper (3 years) for trademarks (1977-1980). Based on these data, it is hypothesized that the rapid augmentation in exogenous variables (such as increasing R&D expenditure or specific policy initiatives (viz., Bayh Dole, Stevenson-Wydler) are the key impetuses behind the increase of persistency during Period 2. Post-1990s exogenic variables led to the maintenance of the high degree and consistency of the persistency metric. These findings suggest investigators should consider latent persistency when using these data and the CHE may be an important tool to investigate the impact of substantive exogenous variables on growth dynamics.

In recent years, the tendency of the number of financial institutions including cryptocurrencies in their portfolios has accelerated. Cryptocurrencies are the first pure digital assets to be included by asset managers. Even though they share some commonalities with more traditional assets, they have a separate nature of its own and their behaviour as an asset is still under the process of being understood. It is therefore important to summarise existing research papers and results on cryptocurrency trading, including available trading platforms, trading signals, trading strategy research and risk management. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of cryptocurrency trading research, by covering 126 research papers on various aspects of cryptocurrency trading (eg., cryptocurrency trading systems, bubble and extreme condition, prediction of volatility and return, crypto-assets portfolio construction and crypto-assets, technical trading and others). This paper also analyses datasets, research trends and distribution among research objects (contents/properties) and technologies, concluding with some promising opportunities that remain open in cryptocurrency trading.

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many cities, states, and countries have `locked down', restricting economic activities in non-essential sectors. Such lockdowns have substantially shrunk production in most countries. This study examines how the economic effects of lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains, a network of firms for production, simulating an agent-based model of production on supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan. We further investigate how the complex network structure affects the interactions of lockdowns, emphasising the role of upstreamness and loops by decomposing supply-chain flows into potential and circular flow components. We find that a region's upstreamness, intensity of loops, and supplier substitutability in supply chains with other regions largely determine the economic effect of the lockdown in the region. In particular, when a region lifts its lockdown, its economic recovery substantially varies depending on whether it lifts lockdown alone or together with another region closely linked through supply chains. These results propose the need for inter-region policy coordination to reduce the economic loss from lockdowns.

Peer review is widely regarded as essential for advancing scientific research. However, reviewers may be biased by authors' prestige or other characteristics. Double-blind peer review, in which the authors' identities are masked from the reviewers, has been proposed as a way to reduce reviewer bias. Although intuitive, evidence for the effectiveness of double-blind peer review in reducing bias is limited and mixed. Here, we examine the effects of double-blind peer review on prestige bias by analyzing the peer review files of 5027 papers submitted to the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), a top computer science conference that changed its reviewing policy from single-blind peer review to double-blind peer review in 2018. We find that after switching to double-blind review, the scores given to the most prestigious authors significantly decreased. However, because many of these papers were above the threshold for acceptance, the change did not affect paper acceptance decisions significantly. Nevertheless, we show that double-blind peer review may have improved the quality of the selections by limiting other (non-author-prestige) biases. Specifically, papers rejected in the single-blind format are cited more than those rejected under the double-blind format, suggesting that double-blind review better identifies poorer quality papers. Interestingly, an apparently unrelated change - the change of rating scale from 10 to 4 points - likely reduced prestige bias significantly, to an extent that affected papers' acceptance. These results provide some support for the effectiveness of double-blind review in reducing prestige bias, while opening new research directions on the impact of peer review formats.

As we can understand with the spread of GVCs, a lot of new questions emerge regarding the measurement of participation and positioning in the globalised production process. The World Development Report (WDR) 2020 explains the GVC phenomenon and then focus on participation and the prospects especially in a world of change in technology. From the overview section, we can figure out that nowadays, goods and services flow across borders as intermediate inputs rather than final goods. In traditional trade, we need two countries with the notions of export and import. However, in GVC trade, the goods and services cross borders multiple times requiring more than two countries. Remarkable improvements in information, communication, and transport technologies have made it possible to fragment production across national boundaries. So the question is: how to conceptualise this type of new trade to justify the measurement of participation.

At the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in March, we observed one of the largest stock market crashes in history. Within the months following this, a volatile bullish climb back to pre-pandemic performances and higher. In this paper we study the stock market behavior during the initial few months of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to COVID-19 sentiment. Using text sentiment analysis of Twitter data, we look at tweets that contain key words in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and the sentiment of the tweet to understand whether sentiment can be used as an indicator for stock market performance. There has been previous research done on applying natural language processing and text sentiment analysis to understand the stock market performance, given how prevalent the impact of COVID-19 is to the economy, we want to further the application of these techniques to understand the relationship that COVID-19 has with stock market performance. Our findings show that there is a strong relationship to COVID-19 sentiment derived from tweets that could be used to predict stock market performance in the future.

We consider the non-adapted version of a simple problem of portfolio optimization in a financial market that results from the presence of insider information. We analyze it via anticipating stochastic calculus and compare the results obtained by means of the Russo-Vallois forward, the Ayed-Kuo, and the Hitsuda-Skorokhod integrals. We compute the optimal portfolio for each of these cases with the aim of establishing a comparison between these integrals in order to clarify their potential use in this type of problem. Our results give a partial indication that, while the forward integral yields a portfolio that is financially meaningful, the Ayed-Kuo and the Hitsuda-Skorokhod integrals do not provide an appropriate investment strategy for this problem.

The use of the Canonical Regression Quantiles Index proved that non-controlled companies that engage in long-term operational and financial goals post superior future performance. The Index indicates that current CEO compensation influences future performance. The Index provides a method for determining CEO pay for the next 1-2 year and is a useful method to distinguish over/underpaid CEOs as an unbiased alternative to the peer groups comparison used by most compensation consultants. This determination is statistically weak, but future research using the Canonical Regression Quantiles with a larger data set may lead to increased sensitivity and a powerful unbiased method for replacing compensation consultants who are responsible for the decoupling of CEO compensation and corporate performance.

We propose a unified multi-tasking framework to represent the complex and uncertain causal process of financial market dynamics, and then to predict the movement of any type of index with an application on the monthly direction of the S&P500 index. our solution is based on three main pillars: (i) the use of transfer learning to share knowledge and feature (representation, learning) between all financial markets, increase the size of the training sample and preserve the stability between training, validation and test sample. (ii) The combination of multidisciplinary knowledge (Financial economics, behavioral finance, market microstructure and portfolio construction theories) to represent a global top-down dynamics of any financial market, through a graph. (iii) The integration of forward looking unstructured data, different types of contexts (long, medium and short term) through latent variables/nodes and then, use a unique VAE network (parameter sharing) to learn simultaneously their distributional representation. We obtain Accuracy, F1-score, and Matthew Correlation of 74.3 %, 67 % and 0.42 above the industry and other benchmark on 12 years test period which include three unstable and difficult sub-period to predict.

Efficient sampling for the conditional time integrated variance process in the Heston stochastic volatility model is key to the simulation of the stock price based on its exact distribution. We construct a new series expansion for this integral in terms of double infinite weighted sums of particular independent random variables through a change of measure and the decomposition of squared Bessel bridges. When approximated by series truncations, this representation has exponentially decaying truncation errors. We propose feasible strategies to largely reduce the implementation of the new series to simulations of simple random variables that are independent of any model parameters. We further develop direct inversion algorithms to generate samples for such random variables based on Chebyshev polynomial approximations for their inverse distribution functions. These approximations can be used under any market conditions. Thus, we establish a strong, efficient and almost exact sampling scheme for the Heston model.

We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it from the restrictive value- or capitalization-weighting assumptions that commonly underlie other various popular indexes. We show that our index is a robust estimator of the market volatility which enables us to characterize the market by performing the task of segmentation with a high degree of reliability. In addition, we analyze the dynamics and kinematics of the realized market volatility as compared to the implied volatility by introducing a time-dependent dynamical system model. Our computational results which pertain to the time period from January 1990 to December 2019 imply that there exist a bidirectional causal relation between the processes underlying the realized and implied volatility of the stock market within the given time period, where it is shown that the later has a stronger causal effect on the former as compared to the opposite. This result connotes that the implied volatility of the market plays a key role in characterization of the market's realized volatility.

In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive formulation of multivariate scalar risk measures to multiportfolio time consistency. We are motivated to study time consistency of multivariate scalar risk measures as the superhedging risk measure in markets with transaction costs (with a single eligible asset) (Jouini and Kallal (1995), Roux and Zastawniak (2016), Loehne and Rudloff (2014)) does not satisfy the usual scalar concept of time consistency. In fact, as demonstrated in (Feinstein and Rudloff (2020)), scalar risk measures with the same scalarization weight at all times would not be time consistent in general. The deduced recursive relation for the scalarizations of multiportfolio time consistent set-valued risk measures provided in this paper requires consideration of the entire family of scalarizations. In this way we develop a direct notion of a "moving scalarization" for scalar time consistency that corroborates recent research on scalarizations of dynamic multi-objective problems (Karnam, Ma, and Zhang (2017), Kovacova and Rudloff (2020)).

This paper aims to assess the effects of industrial pollution on infant mortality between the years 1850-1940 using full count decennial censuses. In this period, US economy experienced a tremendous rise in industrial activity with significant variation among different counties in absorbing manufacturing industries. Since manufacturing industries are shown to be the main source of pollution, we use the share of employment at the county level in this industry to proxy for space-time variation in industrial pollution. Since male embryos are more vulnerable to external stressors like pollution during prenatal development, they will face higher likelihood of fetal death. Therefore, we proxy infant mortality with different measures of gender ratio. We show that the upswing in industrial pollution during late nineteenth century and early twentieth century has led to an increase in infant mortality. The results are consistent and robust across different scenarios, measures for our proxies, and aggregation levels. We find that infants and more specifically male infants had paid the price of pollution during upswing in industrial growth at the dawn of the 20th century. Contemporary datasets are used to verify the validity of the proxies. Some policy implications are discussed.