In this paper we extend the existing literature on xVA along three directions. First, we enhance current BSDE-based xVA frameworks to include initial margin in presence of defaults. Next, we solve the consistency problem that arises when the front-office desk of the bank uses trade-specific discount curves (CSA discounting) which differ from the discount rate adopted by the xVA desk. Finally, we clarify the impact of aggregation of several sub-portfolios of trades on the xVA-valuation of the resulting global portfolio and study related non-linearity effects.

We present a constructive approach to Bernstein copulas with an admissible discrete skeleton in arbitrary dimensions when the underlying marginal grid sizes are smaller than the number of observations. This prevents an overfitting of the estimated dependence model and reduces the simulation effort for Bernstein copulas a lot. In a case study, we compare different approaches of Bernstein and Gaussian copulas w.r.t. the estimation of risk measures in risk management.

The method and characteristics of several approaches to the pricing of discretely monitored arithmetic Asian options on stocks with discrete, absolute dividends are described. The contrast between method behaviors for options with an Asian tail and those with monitoring throughout their lifespan is emphasized. Rates of convergence are confirmed, but greater focus is put on actual performance in regions of accuracy which are realistic for use by practitioners. A hybrid approach combining Curran's analytical approximation with a two-dimensional finite difference method is examined with respect to the errors caused by the approximating assumptions. For Asian tails of equidistant monitoring dates, this method performs very well, but as the scenario deviates from the method's ideal conditions, the errors in the approximation grow unfeasible. For general monitoring straightforward solution of the full three-dimensional partial differential equation by finite differences is highly accurate but suffers from rapid degradation in performance as the monitoring interval increases. For options with long monitoring intervals a randomized quasi-Monte Carlo method with control variate variance reduction stands out as a powerful alternative.

There is a resurging interest in automation because of rapid progress of machine learning and AI. In our perspective, innovation is not an exemption from their expansion. This situation gives us an opportunity to reflect on a direction of future innovation studies. In this conceptual paper, we propose a framework of innovation process by exploiting the concept of unit process. Deploying it in the context of automation, we indicate the important aspects of innovation process, i.e. human, organizational, and social factors. We also highlight the cognitive and interactive underpinnings at micro- and macro-levels of the process. We propose to embrace all those factors in what we call Innovation-Automation-Strategy cycle (IAS). Implications of IAS for future research are also put forward.

Keywords: innovation, automation of innovation, unit process, innovation-automation-strategy cycle

This article explores the relationship between the SPX and VIX options markets. High-strike VIX call options are used to hedge tail risk in the SPX, which means that SPX options are a reflection of the extreme-strike asymptotics of VIX options, and vice versa. This relationship can be quantified using moment formulas in a model-free way. Comparisons are made between VIX and SPX implied volatilities along with various examples of stochastic volatility models.

The diurnal cycle CO$_2$ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reflect seasonality, weather conditions, working days, and more recently the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, for the first time we provide a daily CO$_2$ emission dataset for the whole year of 2020 calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data (called Carbon Monitor project: https://carbonmonitor.org). It was previously suggested from preliminary estimates that did not cover the entire year of 2020 that the pandemics may have caused more than 8% annual decline of global CO$_2$ emissions. Here we show from detailed estimates of the full year data that the global reduction was only 5.4% (-1,901 MtCO$_2$, ). This decrease is 5 times larger than the annual emission drop at the peak of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. However, global CO$_2$ emissions gradually recovered towards 2019 levels from late April with global partial re-opening. More importantly, global CO$_2$ emissions even increased slightly by +0.9% in December 2020 compared with 2019, indicating the trends of rebound of global emissions. Later waves of COVID-19 infections in late 2020 and corresponding lockdowns have caused further CO$_2$ emissions reductions particularly in western countries, but to a much smaller extent than the declines in the first wave. That even substantial world-wide lockdowns of activity led to a one-time decline in global CO$_2$ emissions of only 5.4% in one year highlights the significant challenges for climate change mitigation that we face in the post-COVID era. These declines are significant, but will be quickly overtaken with new emissions unless the COVID-19 crisis is utilized as a break-point with our fossil-fuel trajectory, notably through policies that make the COVID-19 recovery an opportunity to green national energy and development plans.

Using firm-level survey- and register-data for both Sweden and Denmark we show systematic mis-measurement in both vacancy measures. While the register-based measure on the aggregate constitutes a quarter of the survey-based measure, the latter is not a super-set of the former. To obtain the full set of unique vacancies in these two databases, the number of survey vacancies should be multiplied by approximately 1.2. Importantly, this adjustment factor varies over time and across firm characteristics. Our findings have implications for both the search-matching literature and policy analysis based on vacancy measures: Observed changes in vacancies can be an outcome of changes in mis-measurement, and are not necessarily changes in the actual number of vacancies.

To solve complex tasks, individuals often autonomously organize in teams. Examples of complex tasks include disaster relief rescue operations or project development in consulting. The teams that work on such tasks are adaptive at multiple levels: First, by autonomously choosing the individuals that jointly perform a specific task, the team itself adapts to the complex task at hand, whereby the composition of teams might change over time. We refer to this process as self-organization. Second, the members of a team adapt to the complex task environment by learning. There is, however, a lack of extensive research on multi-level adaptation processes that consider self-organization and individual learning as simultaneous processes in the field of management science. We introduce an agent-based model based on the NK-framework to study the effects of simultaneous multi-level adaptation on a team's performance. We implement the multi-level adaptation process by a second-price auction mechanism for self-organization at the team level. Adaptation at the individual level follows an autonomous learning mechanism. Our preliminary results suggest that, depending on the task's complexity, different configurations of individual and collective adaptation can be associated with higher overall task performance. Low complex tasks favour high individual and collective adaptation, while moderate individual and collective adaptation is associated with better performance in case of moderately complex tasks. For highly complex tasks, the results suggest that collective adaptation is harmful to performance.

We study a mathematical model capturing the support/resistance line method (a technique in technical analysis) where the underlying stock price transitions between two states of nature in a path-dependent manner. For optimal stopping problems with respect to a general class of reward functions and dynamics, using probabilistic methods, we show that the value function is $C^1$ and solves a general free boundary problem. Moreover, for a wide range of utilities, we prove that the best time to buy and sell the stock is obtained by solving free boundary problems corresponding to two linked optimal stopping problems. We use this to numerically compute optimal trading strategies for several types of dynamics and varying degrees of relative risk aversion. We then compare the strategies with the standard trading rule to investigate the viability of this form of technical analysis.

We propose a new approach for trading VIX futures. We assume that the term structure of VIX futures follows a Markov model. The trading strategy selects a multi-tenor position by maximizing the expected utility for a day-ahead horizon given the current shape and level of the VIX futures term structure. Computationally, we model the functional dependence between the VIX futures curves, the VIX futures positions, and the expected utility as a deep neural network with five hidden layers. Out-of-sample backtests of the VIX futures trading strategy suggest that this approach gives rise to reasonable portfolio performance, and to positions in which the investor can be either long or short VIX futures contracts depending on the market environment.